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IB Predicted Grades: Who Sets Them and How Universities Use Them
4 min readBy Renzo DiazLast reviewed October 7, 2026
An IB predicted grade is the teacher's estimate of the grade a student is expected to achieve in a subject. Schools enter one for every subject, Theory of Knowledge and the extended essay included, and the IB checks them against each school's past results. UK universities make conditional offers on predicted grades through UCAS and confirm or reject the place when the final results arrive; some continental universities, such as Bocconi, do not use them at all. Predictions are close to final grades but often differ: the IB reported in 2020 that, in previous sessions, 55% of students achieved at least one grade different from their teacher's prediction.
For a UK application, the predicted grades are the IB Diploma as far as a university can see it: the final results arrive only in July, long after the offers. That makes the prediction one of the most consequential numbers in a student's last two years, and one of the least explained. This article sets out what the IB, UCAS and seven UK universities say about predicted grades, and where they matter less.
Every statement comes from the organisation's own pages, read on 7 October 2026. One documented case from my own teaching shows what the gap between a prediction and a final grade can look like.
A predicted grade opens the offer; only the final grade keeps it.
Key takeaways
- Set by the teacher, checked by the IB: against a distribution based on the school's past results.
- The basis of UK offers: universities make conditional offers on predictions and decide on the final grades.
- Often not the final grade: the IB's own figure is 55% of students at least one grade away from a prediction.
- Not used everywhere: Bocconi states it does not consider predicted grades; ETH and EPFL set their rules on the final Diploma.
- 2027 entry: UCAS deadlines are 15 October 2026 for Oxford, Cambridge and most medicine, and 13 January 2027 for the rest.
What an IB predicted grade is
The IB defines a predicted grade as the teacher's estimate of the grade a candidate is expected to achieve in a subject, based on all the evidence of the candidate's work and the teacher's knowledge of IB standards. Schools enter one for every subject, Theory of Knowledge and the extended essay included, in the IB's system by a set deadline.
The IB does not take them on trust. It gives each school a distribution of predicted grades for each subject, based on the school's previous results. A school can exceed it, but the IB may then ask for evidence: a sample of three pieces of a student's work, reviewed by an IB examiner against the grade descriptors, after which the IB either accepts the predictions or asks the school to reconsider them.
The IB also uses predicted grades itself, as a last resort, to calculate a final grade when exams cannot be taken. In May 2026, where exams could not be held safely in parts of the Middle East, results were awarded from externally assessed coursework and teacher-predicted grades.
How close predictions are to final grades
The IB has published one figure. In a 2020 notice, it wrote that school predicted grades are close to, but sometimes different from, the final grade, and that in previous sessions 55% of students achieved at least one grade different from what their teacher predicted. The notice does not say in which direction, or whether the figure counts students or subjects.
UCAS describes the same tension for A-levels, from the other side: around half of UK 18-year-olds were predicted AAA or above in 2025, while 26% of accepted applicants had achieved AAA or above the summer before. Its guidance to schools asks that predictions be achievable, based on demonstrable evidence of performance, and set independently of the universities a student applies to.
“A UCAS predicted grade is the grade of qualification an applicant's school or college believes they're likely to achieve in positive circumstances.”
A documented example: predicted and final grades side by side
The two numbers can match in one subject and differ in another. Blake Eustaquio, whom I taught online from September 2023 to May 2025, was predicted a 7 in IB Physics SL and a 7 in IB Math AI HL. His final grades, confirmed in writing and held on file, were a 7 in Physics SL and a 6 in Math AI HL. The full record is on his case page: IB Physics SL final result (May 2025) and IB Math AI HL final result.
| Subject | Predicted grade | Final grade |
|---|---|---|
| IB Physics SL | 7 | 7 |
| IB Mathematics: Applications and Interpretation HL | 7 | 6 |
Source: the documented case on this site. The predicted 7s are those his public review mentions; the final grades rest on his written confirmation, held on file.
How UK universities use predicted grades
UK universities make offers before the results exist, so the prediction is what they assess; the offer then sets the final grades to reach. What happens at the margin differs, and each university words it differently. Predicted grades can be run through the IB points and UCAS calculator like final ones.
| University | On predicted grades | If the offer is narrowly missed |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford | Teachers should give them; leaving them out significantly reduces the chance of a place or a shortlisting | The college makes a final decision |
| Cambridge | Offers are made before final grades and confirmed or rejected on the results | Offer holders who narrowly missed are reconsidered |
| Imperial | Most students apply on grades their teachers predict | Results are reviewed; in some cases the place is confirmed |
| UCL | Applicants must meet, or be predicted to meet, the minimum requirements | Only meeting the offer in full guarantees the place |
| LSE | Decisions use existing and predicted attainment; the reference should explain the predictions | Context can count for UK applicants who marginally miss |
| Warwick | Predicted grades are considered with the reference and statement; meeting a typical offer is not a guarantee | Occasionally, some who just missed are accepted |
| Edinburgh | Applicants should have achieved, or be predicted to achieve, the requirements | Not stated on the pages read |
Sources: each university's admissions pages, read 7 October 2026. None states how much weight it gives the predicted total against the predicted Higher Level grades; offers are written as a total and HL grades.
Where predicted grades do not count
Outside the UK, the prediction matters less. Bocconi states that it does not consider predicted grades, or grades from the final year: it selects on a test and on the school grades of the two years before the last, and asks for the full Diploma, with at least 24 points, by the May session. ETH Zurich and EPFL set their conditions on the final Diploma, 38 of 42 points without bonus points, and their admission pages do not mention predicted grades. How each sets its rule is in the IB Diploma for ETH, EPFL and German universities.
When predictions are made
For 2027 entry, applications to Oxford, Cambridge and most courses in medicine, veterinary science and dentistry must reach UCAS by 18:00 UK time on 15 October 2026; everything else by 18:00 on 13 January 2027, the deadline for equal consideration. Schools set their own internal deadlines before these, because the reference and predicted grades are added before the application is sent. UCAS asks that students learn their likely predictions in time to choose courses with them in mind.
What a student can do about a predicted grade
Learn the prediction early
Ask for it before choosing courses, and ask what evidence it rests on: assessments, internal work, mock exams.
Match the course list to it
Offers are made on the prediction, so compare each course's published requirements with it before choosing.
Strengthen the evidence, not the request
UCAS asks schools to base predictions on demonstrable performance, so the route to a higher prediction is better work before the deadline.
Plan for the final grade
The offer names final grades, often in a named subject; that subject is where the last months matter most.
Terms used in this article
- Predicted grade
- The teacher's estimate of the grade a student is expected to achieve in an IB subject, entered by the school.
- Conditional offer
- A university place that depends on reaching set final grades, such as a total and grades in named Higher Level subjects.
- Equal consideration deadline
- The UCAS date by which applications are guaranteed the same consideration; for 2027 entry, 13 January 2027.
- Reference
- The school's statement in a UCAS application, where the teacher adds the predicted grades.
- Non-Exam Contingency Measure
- The IB's last-resort route of awarding results from coursework and predicted grades when exams cannot be held.
Questions about IB predicted grades
Who decides IB predicted grades?
The subject teacher, through the school. The IB checks them against a distribution based on the school's past results and can ask for evidence.
How accurate are IB predicted grades?
Close, but often not exact. The IB reported in 2020 that, in previous sessions, 55% of students achieved at least one grade different from their teacher's prediction.
Do universities see my IB predicted grades?
UK universities do, in the UCAS reference. The teacher adds them before the school sends the application.
What happens if I miss my predicted grades?
It depends on the offer, not the prediction. A UK offer is met or missed on the final grades it names; for a narrow miss, Cambridge, Imperial and Warwick say they may still confirm some places.
Does Bocconi use IB predicted grades?
No. Bocconi states that it does not consider predicted grades; it uses the school grades of the third-last and second-last years and a test.
Written by
Teaching IB since 2016. Seven years of IB reviews you can check on Google — and named results with the documents behind them.
Last reviewed October 7, 2026
Sources
Every statement comes from the organisation's own pages, read on 7 October 2026. The IB's accuracy figure is from its May 2020 results notice and is quoted with its own limits. The documented case is the one on this site's results pages.
- IB — Predicted grade quality assurance: school guidance
- IB — May 2020 results adjustment FAQ
- IB — Update on the May 2026 examination session in the Middle East
- UCAS — Predicted grades: what you need to know
- UCAS — 2027 entry deadline for Oxford, Cambridge and most courses in medicine
- University of Oxford — Information for teachers
- University of Cambridge — International applications
- Imperial College London — Results
- LSE — Admissions advice for teachers
- Bocconi — GPA and high school curriculum